← Grand Archive TCG - PTM Store Championship @ Evergreen Games Shoppe
Water FractalTier 1
at Grand Archive TCG - PTM Store Championship @ Evergreen Games Shoppe
decks
1
(4.2% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
8
5-1-2
overall winrate
75.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
63.1%
avg ELO +6.3 per match
expected value
55.2%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
54.0%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1327
· median 1327
· range 1327–1327
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1085
Q1 1177
Q3 1340
1480
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Mage | 8.3% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 41.8% | -7.8 |
| Water Aetherwing | 8.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.6% | +13.8 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 4.2% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 58.4% | +8.0 |
| Fire Suited | 4.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.1% | +9.8 |
| Fire Suzaku | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Silvie | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 4.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.5% | +13.6 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Cleric | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 4.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.9% | +12.6 |
| Wind Razorgale | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Fractal decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
